Big Ten; Vissionary or Villain

Jim Delaney is looking to add to the Big Ten.  The conference currently has 11 teams and is arguably the most financially successful conference across all sports due to the SEC’s relative weakness in Basketball and the Big Easts weakness in football.  The Big Ten’s cable network offerings are an incredible cash cow that means that each member school gets paid more for a saturday afternoon football game share on the network than Notre Dame gets from NBC, even though Notre Dame can eat the whole pie.  However, as the Big Ten looks to merge into a super conference some are questioning that the moves may not be in College Sports’ Best Interest.

The Big Ten has caused rampant speculation by not saying a lot about their plans.  Jim Delaney even called a press conference yesterday at the BCS meetings in LA to say virtually nothing for a half hour.  There have been a few logical packages laid out.  Here’s the most credible of the rumors.

The Notre Dame Nuclear Option

It’s no secret that the Big Ten has Irish Eyes.  They wanted the Irish back in 1999 when they joined the Big East in all sports but football.  They wanted the Irish on at least two occassions before that when they got the heisman pose from the ‘domers.  There are great regional ties and rivalries with the Irish including trophy games between Purdue, Michigan & Michigan State.  Many point to the fact that Notre Dame doesn’t split their TV or Bowl money as the reason for staying independent in Football and the lack of football strength in the Big East as to why they were allowed to.

The plan to force Notre Dame into the Big Ten, kicking and screaming, involves issuing a letter to the Big East promising not to lure Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn and Pitt to the Big Ten if they kick out Notre Dame.  Notre Dame basically needs a conference for every other sport and would have almost no choice but to join the Big Ten.  This is the Nuclear Option because it works sort of in the same way that Nukes do, just the threat.

The Big East survives because they still have 15 teams, and a respectible basketball program but doesn’t lose anything in football.  This is the least disruptive, if the most heavy handed.

Pushing The Button, Blow up the Big East

If this doesn’t work, the Big Ten could decide to make good on their threat.  They could go after the power schools of the Big East and try and expand East.  If they pick up Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn & Pitt they would have 15 teams but be an almost indespensible television network from St. Louis to Southern New England.  This would further increase the financial incentive for other teams and could also lead to Notre Dame being the 16th team and still joining anyway.

Going West

If the Big East stays strong and refuses, the Big Ten could go and raid the Big 12.  This plan would center around getting Texas.  Texas is the Jewel of the Big 12.  Top tier football school, top tier basketball, awesome in every other sport – has won the commissioners trophy many times (all-sports combined).  Texas comes with Texas A&M.  It’s like trying to split the Red Sox and Yankees or North Carolina and Duke, you just don’t do it.

If the Big Ten goes west, you can expect them to pickup Missouri.  Missouri is on the record of wanting to go to the Big Ten.  The Governor of Missouri even has stated that it would be beneficial to leave the Big 12 where conference monies are split evenly and not weighted towards the big 3 of OU, Nebraska, and Texas.  There is some television benefit to Missouri but not the same as Texas.  With Missouri, the Big Ten may like to get Nebraska but could settle for Iowa State.

What it all means

The conference that gets raided will essentially become Conference USA/WAC/Mountain West material.  They will not have the elite 6 power anymore.  If the Big 12 gets raided they may merge with the Mountain West or Conference USA and try and carry on, but they will surely be the 6th place in that list.

The Big Ten is trying to promote it’s Big Ten Network as the next ESPN or likely a Fox Sports Super Regional.  The problem with FSN is that it’s too fragmented and a strong Big Ten Network could improve the finances of that model especially when covering your favorite college.  The Big East movement makes more financial sense because of the east coast media market being significantly more important than Texas, Missouri, Nebraska etc.

The New York Daily news panned the idea of the Big Ten breaking up the Big East for Rutgers, Syracuse and UConn to break into the NYC TV market.  They pointed out that New York doesn’t really care for college football.  I would agree that when Rutgers or UConn struggles, they struggle mightily and people usually don’t follow Big East football.  Big East Basketball however is a big deal.  How good would the Big East be without Syracuse, UConn, Pitt or even Notre Dame or even Rutgers?  This would be a strong winter offering to further prop up the network, especially when you account for the fact that you get more games out of basketball and the coverage is more regional.

It will remain to be seen if the deregulation of conferences by the NCAA in 1990 is a good thing or a bad thing.  We are pushing 20 years of letting the schools do what they want as far as alignment and scheduling and will this be seen as de-regulating the telephone companies and encouraging broadband and cell phones or will it be more like de-regulating the mortgage and investment market and inviting an industry melt-down?  Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure, all the commissioners and college presidents are on pins and needles to see what will happen over the next 12-18 months.