Fun with Math and Rankings – The Colts D is not that bad.

Welcome to the NFL. People are very slow to react to NFL trends. Ask the average Fan-on-the-Street who the best NFL defense this year and you’ll get some who will tell you the correct statistical answer, the Jets, primarily because they have now won two playoff games with a rookie QB and a loud mouthed rookie head coach who is telling everyone who will listen how good his defense is.  When it comes to defining #2-#5, old habits die hard.

Ask the average fan on the street to name the top 3 NFL teams in total team defense (YPG) and you will get some interesting and incorrect answers.  You’ll likely get answers like Philladelphia, Pittsburgh, New York (G), Baltimore, Chicago or Minnesota.  These are all very valid answers, for 2008.  People are slow to react and understand the new trends in the NFL.

Any casual fan will tell you that the AFC is stronger than the NFC.  This may have a number of reasons, like how the AL in MLB is still significantly stronger than the NL.  Perhaps they will point to the fact that only 3 NFC franchises have won the Superbowl since 1997 (3-9).  However, it may be a better measure to look at the interconference records of the teams and it will be clear that for the past 2 years it has been much closer than people think.  The 2009 season ended with the NFC going 31-33 against the AFC.  Not quite dominating.

Additionally, a lot of stock is put in end of season rankings and averages.  This seems like a very fair and balanced™ method to determine which team is best at a particular phase of the game.  This makes a lot of sense, we do it for Basketball, Baseball, Hockey and almost every other sport.  The problem here is there are only 16 total games on the schedule.  Some teams need all 16 games to try and make the playoffs.  With 2 weeks left in the season, no less than 6 AFC teams had a chance to take the final 2 playoff spots.    The other side of the coin lies with the Colts and Saints of the World.  When you put your team to rest with 2 or 3 games to play in the season that is a significant percentage that can affect your rankings and statistics that will make them potentially inaccurate.

Without arguing that the Colts didn’t try 100% against the Jaguars in Week 15 (game 14) they still clearly didn’t try 100% against the Jets and Bills in weeks 16 and 17.  This is 1/8th of their season.  13%.

This week the ‘experts’ are trumpeting their rushing defense’s ranking or lack their of at #24.  This is true, however if you take their YPG after Week 15, the last game they tried with reasonable certainty to play a complete game at 100%, their ranking jumps up 9 spots to 15, and YPG drops more than 15 yards, a huge number by averages.